Daily Rate Signal Log
BlueSkyFI rate signal track record
Every current-era lock, float, or hold call in one place, with the original rationale and the five-business-day mortgage-rate outcome once it is available.
Current public scoring starts May 19, 2026, after the daily OBMMI call-rate source and grading workflow changes. Earlier rows through May 18, 2026 remain archived below, but they no longer count in current accuracy.
Directional Accuracy
46%
6 correct out of 13 lock/float calls
Strict All-Call Accuracy
32%
19 correct out of 60 valid graded calls, including strict hold-band checks
Confident Calls (70%+)
42%
5 correct out of 12 high-confidence calls
Tracked Rows
67
Current-era rows since May 19, 2026
Calibration watch
The Brier score is 0.331, worse than the 0.25 coin-flip baseline, so confidence is not calibrated yet. High-confidence calls are only 42% correct so far, so confidence should stay capped until the hit rate improves.
Directional accuracy is the primary rate-timing score. Hold outcomes are strict band checks, not lock/float predictions.
Lock Calls
46%
6 correct of 13
Float Calls
n/a
0 correct of 0
Hold Band Checks
28%
13 inside band of 47
Calibration
How well does confidence match outcomes?
Brier score measures the average squared gap between stated confidence and the realized outcome. Lower is better. 0.25 is the coin-flip baseline; below that means the confidence number carries information.
Brier Score
0.331
over 60 graded calls
Signal-enhanced lift
Hidden until at least 5 graded calls were actually influenced by external indicator pressure. No lift claim is shown before then.
<50% confidence
0/1 correct
Predicted
46%
Actual
0%
50-59% confidence
2/11 correct
Predicted
55.7%
Actual
18.2%
60-69% confidence
12/36 correct
Predicted
63.1%
Actual
33.3%
70-79% confidence
3/6 correct
Predicted
71.8%
Actual
50%
80-89% confidence
2/6 correct
Predicted
88.5%
Actual
33.3%
Methodology + Status
Public grading rules
Current-era calls are graded against the first FRED OBMMI 30-year mortgage observation on or after five business days, with a one-business-day cushion for source publication. Pending rows have not reached that source window yet. Awaiting backfill rows are eligible and still waiting on the historical source pass. Hold calls are strict band checks: they count only if the five-business-day rate stays within the tolerance band, while lock and float calls are the directional score.
Current Era Start
May 19, 2026
The public scorecard reset after the daily OBMMI source change.
Tolerance
0.03%
Hold calls are band checks, not directional calls.
Eligible Through
Aug 7, 2026
Rows on or before this date should have a daily OBMMI source reading available.
Latest Source Date
Aug 13, 2026
Most recent historical source date used in a graded row.
Invalid Rows
0
Rows with malformed rate inputs are excluded from accuracy until repaired.
Source
FRED OBMMIC30YF
Public daily lock-rate index used for the five-business-day grading window.
Current-Era Accuracy
How the hit rate develops from the reset
60 graded calls
Read This Table
What gets logged
- The daily signal records whether BlueSkyFI leaned `lock`, `float`, or `hold`.
- Confidence reflects how strong the setup looked when the call was made.
- Directional accuracy is the primary score. Strict all-call accuracy includes hold band checks and is reported separately.
- Hold means “do not force a lock/float call”; it only grades correct if the five-business-day rate stays inside the tolerance band.
- Rows stay labeled `Pending grading` until the five-business-day source reading should exist.
- Invalid rows are excluded from grading until the stored call-time rate is repaired.
Current-era daily calls
| Date | Signal | Confidence | Rate At Call | 7d Rate | Outcome | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.10% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Aug 21, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.65% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Aug 20, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: inventory gives agents room to negotiate structure, but borrower margin still decides whether the deal survives. |
| Aug 12, 2026 | LOCK | 64% | 6.70% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Aug 19, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.09%, inflation is still sticky at 3.73%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Aug 11, 2026 | HOLD | 46% | 6.10% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Aug 18, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Aug 10, 2026 | HOLD | 55% | 6.69% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Aug 17, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Aug 9, 2026 | HOLD | 55% | 6.69% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by Aug 14, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Aug 7, 2026 | HOLD | 50% | 6.69% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by Aug 14, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HOLD | 53% | 6.65% | 6.64% | Correct Graded from Aug 13, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Aug 5, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.67% | 6.65% | Correct Graded from Aug 12, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Aug 4, 2026 | LOCK | 64% | 6.71% | 6.70% | Missed Graded from Aug 11, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.09% from last week, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.1%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Aug 3, 2026 | LOCK | 64% | 6.72% | 6.70% | Missed Graded from Aug 10, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.08% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.09 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Aug 2, 2026 | HOLD | 63% | 6.65% | 6.64% | Correct Graded from Aug 7, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jul 31, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.65% | 6.64% | Correct Graded from Aug 7, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: use payment sensitivity, spread checks, and concession math before giving clients a lock, refi, or list-price answer. |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.62% | 6.69% | Missed Graded from Aug 6, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: use payment sensitivity, spread checks, and concession math before giving clients a lock, refi, or list-price answer. |
| Jul 29, 2026 | HOLD | 50% | 6.62% | 6.65% | Correct Graded from Aug 5, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Jul 28, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.64% | 6.67% | Missed Graded from Aug 4, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: inventory gives agents room to negotiate structure, but borrower margin still decides whether the deal survives. |
| Jul 27, 2026 | LOCK | 62% | 6.65% | 6.71% | Correct Graded from Aug 3, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.09% from last week, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.16%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Jul 24, 2026 | LOCK | 62% | 6.68% | 6.72% | Correct Graded from Jul 31, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.14% from last week, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.1%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.10% | 6.65% | Missed Graded from Jul 30, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| Jul 22, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.60% | 6.67% | Missed Graded from Jul 29, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: use payment sensitivity, spread checks, and concession math before giving clients a lock, refi, or list-price answer. |
| Jul 21, 2026 | LOCK | 62% | 6.56% | 6.62% | Correct Graded from Jul 28, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage spreads widened 0.09 pp, inflation is still sticky at 3.73%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Jul 20, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.54% | 6.64% | Missed Graded from Jul 27, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jul 18, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.56% | 6.65% | Missed Graded from Jul 24, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: inventory gives agents room to negotiate structure, but borrower margin still decides whether the deal survives. |
| Jul 17, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.56% | 6.65% | Missed Graded from Jul 24, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: use payment sensitivity, spread checks, and concession math before giving clients a lock, refi, or list-price answer. |
| Jul 16, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.54% | 6.68% | Missed Graded from Jul 23, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: use payment sensitivity, spread checks, and concession math before giving clients a lock, refi, or list-price answer. |
| Jul 15, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.54% | 6.63% | Missed Graded from Jul 22, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jul 14, 2026 | HOLD | 46% | 6.10% | 6.60% | Missed Graded from Jul 21, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| Jul 13, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.51% | 6.56% | Missed Graded from Jul 20, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Jul 12, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.54% | 6.54% | Correct Graded from Jul 17, 2026 | recent directional accuracy is 42% across 31 graded lock/float calls. Holding avoids publishing a directional call before the forecast record improves. |
| Jul 11, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.54% | 6.54% | Correct Graded from Jul 17, 2026 | recent directional accuracy is 42% across 31 graded lock/float calls. Holding avoids publishing a directional call before the forecast record improves. |
| Jul 9, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.57% | 6.56% | Missed Graded from Jul 16, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.11% from last week, inflation is still sticky at 4.27%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Jul 8, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.50% | 6.54% | Missed Graded from Jul 15, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: use payment sensitivity, spread checks, and concession math before giving clients a lock, refi, or list-price answer. |
| Jul 7, 2026 | LOCK | 86% | 6.47% | 6.54% | Correct Graded from Jul 14, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.11%, inflation is still sticky at 4.27%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Jul 5, 2026 | LOCK | 62% | 6.47% | 6.51% | Correct Graded from Jul 10, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.08%, inflation is still sticky at 4.27%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Jul 3, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.47% | 6.51% | Missed Graded from Jul 10, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Jul 2, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.47% | 6.54% | Missed Graded from Jul 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Jun 30, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.42% | 6.50% | Missed Graded from Jul 7, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jun 29, 2026 | HOLD | 60% | 6.41% | 6.47% | Missed Graded from Jul 6, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jun 26, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.42% | 6.47% | Missed Graded from Jul 6, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: inventory gives agents room to negotiate structure, but borrower margin still decides whether the deal survives. |
| Jun 24, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.50% | 6.47% | Correct Graded from Jul 1, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Jun 23, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.51% | 6.45% | Missed Graded from Jun 30, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.08% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.1 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Jun 22, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.45% | 6.42% | Missed Graded from Jun 29, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jun 18, 2026 | HOLD | 55% | 6.48% | 6.42% | Missed Graded from Jun 25, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jun 17, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.43% | 6.45% | Correct Graded from Jun 24, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jun 16, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.45% | 6.50% | Missed Graded from Jun 23, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jun 15, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.48% | 6.51% | Missed Graded from Jun 22, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jun 12, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.53% | 6.51% | Correct Graded from Jun 22, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: inventory gives agents room to negotiate structure, but borrower margin still decides whether the deal survives. |
| Jun 11, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.53% | 6.45% | Missed Graded from Jun 18, 2026 | The daily playbook is asking for confirmation before a directional rate call: Rate desk read: use payment sensitivity, spread checks, and concession math before giving clients a lock, refi, or list-price answer. |
| Jun 9, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.50% | 6.43% | Missed Graded from Jun 16, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Jun 8, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.51% | 6.45% | Missed Graded from Jun 15, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, inflation is still sticky at 3.95%, the IEF bond proxy is down 0.47% today, which points to rising same-day rate pressure. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Jun 5, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.47% | 6.48% | Correct Graded from Jun 12, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Jun 4, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.46% | 6.53% | Missed Graded from Jun 11, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Jun 3, 2026 | HOLD | 59% | 6.47% | 6.53% | Missed Graded from Jun 10, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jun 2, 2026 | HOLD | 58% | 6.45% | 6.53% | Missed Graded from Jun 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Jun 1, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.10% | 6.50% | Missed Graded from Jun 8, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| May 30, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.45% | 6.51% | Missed Graded from Jun 5, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 29, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.48% | 6.51% | Missed Graded from Jun 5, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 28, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.48% | 6.47% | Correct Graded from Jun 4, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 27, 2026 | HOLD | 71% | 6.47% | 6.46% | Correct Graded from Jun 3, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| May 26, 2026 | HOLD | 61% | 6.51% | 6.43% | Missed Graded from Jun 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 25, 2026 | HOLD | 59% | 6.56% | 6.47% | Missed Graded from Jun 1, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 24, 2026 | HOLD | 59% | 6.56% | 6.44% | Missed Graded from May 29, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 23, 2026 | HOLD | 59% | 6.56% | 6.44% | Missed Graded from May 29, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 22, 2026 | HOLD | 57% | 6.56% | 6.44% | Missed Graded from May 29, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 21, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.58% | 6.45% | Missed Graded from May 28, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.2% from last week, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.21%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 20, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.63% | 6.48% | Missed Graded from May 27, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.21% from last week, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.15%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 19, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.36% | 6.47% | Correct Graded from May 26, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.17%, inflation is still sticky at 3.95%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
Archived pre-reset track record
Pre-reset rows are preserved
The older public run through May 18, 2026 stays available for accountability and audit history. It is archived separately so the current scorecard can start clean after the OBMMI source change.
Latest Archived Row
May 18, 2026
Archived Rows
67
Kept outside the current accuracy metrics.
Archived Graded Calls
65
Historical sample size before the reset.
Archived Directional
46%
12 correct of 26
Archived All-Call
23%
15 correct of 65